The ongoing conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices sharply higher.

There are no guarantees as to when there will be stability in the region or in financial markets. Events over the past few years including other Middle East conflicts, inflation, trade wars, and Venezuela earlier this year, all provide important context and perspective.

What should investors keep in mind in the coming weeks?

MARCH 2026 — After new all-time highs, the mood shifted due to a landmark Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, concerns around artificial intelligence, softer labor market data, and major escalations in the Middle East.

The situation in Iran after U.S. and Israeli strikes is evolving rapidly, and the safety of civilians in the region and our troops are the most important consideration. Without taking away from the severity of these events, investors will naturally have questions about what this means for markets, oil prices, and their portfolios.

FEBRUARY 2026 — While headlines created short-term swings, including the S&P 500's worst day since last October, markets rebounded quickly. Within days, major indices reached new all-time highs, driven by healthy corporate earnings.

JANUARY 2026 — The past year delivered no shortage of headlines including April's tariff announcements, ongoing developments in artificial intelligence stocks, the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and more. Yet through it all, U.S. stocks rose to new record highs, international markets outperformed, and bonds continued their rebound.

DECEMBER 2025 — During the month, AI-related technology stocks experienced their worst week since April, driving volatility that affected many asset classes. At the same time, the government shutdown delayed the publication of key economic reports, making it more difficult to judge how the economy is doing. Despite this, many asset classes stabilized and rebounded by the end of the month.

NOVEMBER 2025 — The strong market performance continued in October with many major indices reaching new all-time highs. These gains are despite uncertainty from a government shutdown and renewed trade tensions with China early in the month.

OCTOBER 2025 — Investors are facing conflicting signals. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in the third quarter. At the same time, the labor market has weakened considerably since the beginning of the summer. For investors, this uncertainty may feel uncomfortable, but it's also what drives long-term portfolio outcomes.

Until policymakers reach a funding agreement, there will be a federal government shutdown, adding more uncertainty to a year already full of it.

The Fed just cut policy rates by 0.25%. This decision came at a time when markets are near all-time highs, economic signals are mixed, and there is still uncertainty around tariffs and inflation.

SEPTEMBER 2025 — The stock market climbed to new all-time highs in August, while bonds also contributed positively to portfolios. This occurred despite continued uncertainty around tariffs, Fed independence, and technology stocks.

AUGUST 2025 — The market reached many new highs amid a noisy month of tariff whiplash, a new tax bill and earnings surprises.

JULY 2025 — On the surface, the first half of 2025 has been challenging for investors. From a trade war and market correction to an escalating Middle East conflict and concerns over the growing national debt, investors may feel as if financial markets are stumbling from one problem to the next. Underlying that volatility is opportunity.

JUNE 2025 — After a challenging April, markets demonstrated resilience by recovering most of their losses and returning to positive territory in May. This positive month occurred against a backdrop of new trade agreements, mixed economic signals and ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal health.

MAY 2025 — April demonstrated the importance of being prepared for market uncertainty as it was one of the most volatile months in history as markets reacted to new tariff announcements.

APRIL 2025 — The markets waffled all month in anticipation of “Liberation Day.” Out at almost the same time, the latest labor market report, showed much stronger job growth than expected. Unfortunately, hard evidence that the labor market isn’t softening wasn’t enough to distract the stock market from the tariff tantrum.

On April 2, President Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all major trading partners. There are many arguments for and against tariffs, and the topic can be politically charged. Regardless of how we each feel about these measures, we can acknowledge that these tariffs do represent a significant change in the global economic system.

MARCH 2025 — It’s a difficult job finding balance between competing economic, market and political demands. The current result is increased volatility and more than a little uncertainty as headlines drive markets.

Trade headlines continue to weigh on markets as new tariffs go into effect. President Trump recently confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, and additional tariffs are expected in the coming months, including reciprocal ones against countries that impose duties on U.S. goods.

Investors worry that a trade war could raise prices for consumers and businesses, slowing economic growth. As a result, the stock market has pulled back in recent days across major indices and sectors.

FEBRUARY 2025 — The saying “as January goes, so goes the year” has been correct 70.8% of the time since 1929, according to S&P Global, and it was a good month.

The first days of the new administration also saw non-stop action.